A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
